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Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate
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Government agencies, private organizations, and individuals whose futures will be affected by climate change are unprepared, both conceptually and practically, for meeting the challenges and oppor- tunities it presents. Many of their usual practices and decision rules—for building bridges, implementing zoning rules, using private motor vehicles, and so on—assume a stationary climate—a continuation of past climatic conditions, including similar patterns of variation and the same probabili- ties of extreme events. That assumption, fundamental to the ways people and organizations make their choices, is no longer valid. As a result of human activity, the average temperature of Earth will soon leave the less-than-1° Celsius range that it has maintained for more than 10,000 years. Moreover, despite 15 years of intense international climate negotiations, atmospheric CO2 con- centrations have been growing 33 percent faster during the last 8 years than they did in the 1990s. Climate change will create a novel and dynamic decision environment. The parameters of the new climate regime cannot be envisioned from past experience. Moreover, climatic changes will be superimposed on social and economic changes that are altering the climate vulnerability of different re- gions and sectors of society, as well as their ability to cope. Decision makers will need new kinds of information and new ways of thinking and learning to function effectively in a changing climate.
978-0-309-13737-9
NONE
Social Science
English
2009
1-201
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