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A STRATEGIC PLANNING MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF A FAMILY PLANNING SYSTEM
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This paper describes a strategic planning model designed to be used by managers of family planning systems to improve understanding, forecasting, and planning. The macro-flow model describes the patient movement through post partum and non-post partum programs. The flows model the phenomena of; outreach, continuance, post partum check ups,
switching methods, referral, migration, contraceptive use experience, private protection, method effectiveness, follow up, and abortion. Strategic variables can be linked to the flow parameters to produce capacity requirements and budgetary implications. The model output includes benefit measures of total actives, couple years of protection, "births protected", and unwanted births prevented. The fertility aspects of births prevented are modeled through a non-stationery Markov process submodel which
considers demographic phenomena without burdening the basic flow structure. The input procedures used to process service statistics, outreach, clinic survey, and experimental data are discussed. The combination of
data based estimates and subjective judgment is done by "fitting" tliemodel to past observed data. Testing is done by "tracking" in model performance through conditional prediction, diagnosis, and updating.
Glen L. Urban - Personal Name
1000879281
NONE
Management
English
2013
1-256
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