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͞Lower population, higher prosperity͟ Impact of population growth on Job Market in the UK by 2050
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The population projections for the UK used in this paper are the 2010-‐based national population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This set of projections is based on a review of the underlying assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration. Population is above 88 million under high population scenario by 2050, and around 68 million under low population scenario. Our model shows that the UK requires the lowest job creation rate (percentage increase in job supply per annum) to keep unemployment rate at mid-‐2000s average when both long-‐term net inward migration and fertility rate are low. The estimate is between 0.254% and 0.23%. On the other hand, an annual job creation rate above 0.6% is required when fertility and net migration are high. For the principal projection, target job creation rate should be 0.45%, while the historical average over the past 40 years is estimated to be around 0.5%.
Population Matters - Organizational Body
NONE
Management
English
August 2012
1-57
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