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Quantitative Risk Analysis for Project Management A Critical Review
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This paper is the final report of the RAND Internal Research and
Development (IR&D) project “Risk Management and Risk Analysis for
Complex Projects: Developing a Research Agenda.” The aim of the
project was to survey how quantitative risk management and risk analysis
methods were applied to the planning and execution of complex projects,
particularly those which planned to utilize new and untried
technologies. One recent RAND study indicated that such methods, while
widely advocated, were not used to plan and manage a critical government
satellite development project. This paper recommends several research
areas in which RAND could contribute to evaluating the utility of these
methods and improving their applicability.
This paper results from RAND’s continuing program of self-sponsored
independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by
donors and by the independent research and development provisions of
RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense
federally funded research and development centers.