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More People. Less Water An Investigation Into The UK's Requirement For Water In 2050
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Executive Summary by Population Matters
Background
Population Matters is an environmental charity, raising awareness of the ecological, social and economic implications of population growth in the UK and globally.
This report (September 2011) is one of a series, providing numbers to support the claim that (to echo the recommendation of the last official body seriously to deal with UK population growth, the 1973 Population Panel Cmnd 5258), the UK would be better off with a stable than a growing population, as a necessary though not sufficient condition of sustainable development. As a student project (earning a ‗Merit‘ from LSE), the report is not peer-reviewed; and Population Matters does not vouch for every figure.
Population: a Variable, not a Datum
Most official UK and international publications take the medium figure of the UN projection for 2050 – a population of 73 million - as ‗given‘. The range of the UK projection, however, is 64 to 82 million, ie an increase of between 2 and 20 million more people, depending on action by government and UK residents.
Terms of Reference
Ms Shukla was asked: to calculate the implications for the UK‘s water supplies of attaining the highest and lowest ends of the range, under a variety of different scenarios and assumptions; and to compare and contrast them.
Main Report Conclusions
Depending on assumptions about variables, such as the degree of reduction in water consumption per person and the need for more irrigation in hotter, drier summers, the higher number of people would need between 1.5 and 4.9 million more tonnes per day than the lower; and the cost of the new reservoirs to provide this would be between £5.9 and £22.6 billion extra on UK water bills. The report does not take account of: the additional costs of new pipelines, sewage treatment works and long-distance pumping; the additional cost of flood risk management for the needed additional housing, transport links etc (which the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) published in January 2012 sees as the largest additional cost); nor the energy/CO2 implications (tap water being also embodied energy).
Population Matters Recommendation
With water, as with energy, food, soil, timber, waste, CO2 emissions etc, demand is by definition a function of the average demand per person multiplied by the number of people. The greater the number of people, the more demand/consumption per person must be reduced, to stay within sustainable ecological limits; and the greater the cost, to citizens and the Exchequer, of providing for this. This report not only makes a strong prima facie case for DEFRA or the Environment Agency to commission further research (a case strengthened by the CCRA), but also reinforces our view that stabilizing the UK population at the lowest possible number is in the long-term national interest; and that Government should make this a public policy objective.
Roger Martin
Chair Population Matters January 2012